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South Sudan Independence: Necessary but not a Panacea

1/7/2011

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      Excited voters in South Sudan (and a large Diaspora outside the country) begin to vote on Sunday on a long-awaited referendum that will result in the de jure break-up of greater Sudan. From a practical point of view, however, the South has been disconnected from the North for five years and historically Sudan's map footprint glossed over the weak authority projected from Khartoum since the end of colonial rule in 1956. In fact, decades of war and violence illustrated that politics by other means became the norm of power projection from Khartoum, and often the modus operandi in central political struggles as well.
      There is little doubt how Southerners will vote. Those in the Canadian Diaspora will over-whelmingly vote for secession. They are in Canada due precisely to the North-South struggle. But secession for many of them is a starting point, not an end. There are deep concerns over the leadership of the SPLM. The South is hardly a united whole. Economic development has been sluggish, infrastructure build-out slow, corruption growing.  Secession will lead to heightened expectations that the current leadership and political configuration seems ill equipped to meet.  With government dependent on revenues from oil, and control of oil proceeds a constant struggle with Khartoum, secession will not improve the situation. There is hope that South Sudan will pursue more integration into the East African economy: Juba already has stronger linkages to Uganda and Kenya than to the North. But there are significant political hurdles to overcome to unlock the potential of the South Sudanese economy. Political geography is not currently a positive influence: northern Uganda, northern DR Congo, and eastern CAR and Chad remain plagued by various rebel groups, militias, and banditry.
      The US has been watching Sudan closely. The Obama Administration is engaged. George Clooney has been at the forefront of using his celebrity to focus both official and public attention on the Southern vote. Canada is also engaged in Sudan, although future commitments are on uncertain ground give future cuts to DND, DFAIT, and CIDA. But South Sudan is going to require a concerted effort, real human and resource investment, by its substantial Diaspora. Canada, the US, and other donor countries have limited success over fifty years of helping African and post-conflict states become healthy, robust political economies. We're apt to do all the same mistakes rather than learning from the past and seeing the emergence of South Sudan as a real substantive moment in 21st Century Africa.  We can't control the outcome of African economic and political developments, but we can cultivate trajectories at critical moments, and the coming few months will mark a critical moment in the lives of the South Sudanese (of the possible Republic of Kush) and the whole of East Africa.

More resources here:
http://www.satsentinel.org/ - The Clooney spearheaded effort to use satellite imagery to track troop movements and violence in the South Sudan region.
http://unmis.unmissions.org/ - Official UNMIS (UN Mission in Sudan) website.
http://www.goss-online.org/ - Govt of South Sudan website
http://www.sudan.net - Extensive resources about Sudan
Globe and Mail coverage (Geoffrey York)
13 January 2011 - South Sudanese voters surpass the 60% threshold to ensure the referendum results are recognized by North
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Obama Unveils New US Global Policy on Development at UN

9/23/2010

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      At the UNGA today, each of President Obama and Prime Minister Harper had the podium. In the American case, the President reiterated his new vision on development: to make it a priority to reach out to open, democratic states as targets of increased economic assistance (the theme he addressed at the MDG session yesterday).  He urged other states  to work towards being open democractic societies, with transparent , representative governments and open economies. He also urged them to spread the word and not shy away from pressuring their friends and neighbours to move in these directions. Raising Development as a third significant pillar to be equivalent to Defense and Diplomacy is a policy issue this administration has been working on for months.    
      Couched in much different language than Bush's "for us or against us" and "axis of evil" speeches after 9/11, and embedded in language of support for the UN, rules, and multilateral action,  the President's message specifically on development did not, ultimately, differ significantly from those of JFK, Nixon, Clinton, or even Bush.  However, the new reorganization and upliftment of Development in Washington underscored the overall tone and forthrightness of this president, one who resonates much stronger internationally than his predecessor. His voice on development also carries more weight given the drawdown in Iraq, his intensive focus on the Middle East, and even his African heritage.  His language reflects the same American values of liberty and opportunity but within a much more acceptable framework of global peace and prosperity. There have not been any noticeable shifts in the developmental institutions that Obama inherited from Bush: MCC continues as does PEPFAR and Africom.  But change is coming in terms of overall strategy and coherence, targetting of resources to countries meeting democractic, economic reform, and human rights expectations, and new initiatives. 
      A review of the history of US development thinking and implementation since the Marshall Plan illustrates too many examples of new initiatives and  strategic reorganizations to become too hopeful. Exporting democracy, good governance, and liberal capitalism remains an elusive aim. During the Cold War security issues often overrode development and human rights concerns. There is evidence that the War on Terrorism continues that same trend (e.g., worrying Ethiopian trends).  Overall, this is a laudable Obama initiative in an international policy area where some bipartisan support will be forthcoming. But both the ideas underpinning development and the political and bureaucractic realities of Washington--not to mention developing countries--precludes this initative from having the real impact on the ground that the administration, presumably, expects.
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The Forgotten War: the LRA at large across Central Africa

8/12/2010

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      Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported today, after a month long investigation, the ongoing threat posed by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) to residents across a wide swathe of the northern-most region of the DR Congo (DRC) and extending into the Central African Republic (CAR). This remote area is an ideal area of operations for the LRA after years of operating in northern Uganda and southern Sudan. Abductions, rapes, killings, and looting are the hallmark of this directionless band of guerilla fighters that rely considerably on kidnapped children to fill their ranks.
    As noted by the HRW report, "Three of the LRA's leaders, including Kony and Odhiambo, are sought by the International Criminal Court under arrest warrants issued in July 2005 for war crimes and crimes against humanity in northern Uganda. "  A very good account of the strategy and obstacles to securing the surrender of Kony and the LRA during peace talks (c. 2007) can be found at the Enough Project.  After Kony backed out, again, a US supported regional military campaign in late 2008 disrupted the LRA in the DRC but did not capture their leadership and only pushed them deeper into the DRC and CAR.  
    HRW is using this report to put pressure on the Obama administration to implement legislation signed by the President less than three months ago (I have to admit I had not heard about this until now). The Lord’s Resistance Army Disarmament and Northern Uganda Recovery Act of 2009   is supported by a large number of NGOs as well as powerful Senators Feingold (D-WI) and Brownback (R-KA).   The complete text of the legislation is available here.  Most pressing for President Obama is a requirement to submit a strategy to Congress within 180 days of the signing of the Act, which means before the end of November 2010.
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    Picture
    A statue in Arusha, Tanzania honoring local TPDF soldiers who died during the war with Idi Amin (1978-79)

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    Chris WJ Roberts is a Canadian international business and policy consultant; a student of African politics, international relations, and Canadian foreign policy working towards a PhD in political science at the University of Alberta; and an instructor in political science at the University of Calgary (2014-2018).

    This irregular blog provides an outlet for an "entrepreneurial academic" to make small interventions around the theme of Africa in the World. In many respects it acts as a research notebook, capturing issues, sources, and ideas to be used for more detailed analysis in the future.

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